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The Real Estate Market Is Changing With The Season

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By Cheri Wilkins, REALTOR®

As the Season changes to Fall, the real estate market is changing as well. The over-heated market is starting to cool. Buyers are stepping back as the flurry of the past several years has created a year of unprecedented price increases and a shortage of homes. Buyers have been writing offers and not having the offer accepted or offering over list price and offering to bring in cash to make up the difference if the property did not appraise. We are starting to see price decreases, fewer offers are coming in on each listing and the marketing for a home is longer.

The housing supply is still very low. We have been averaging 300-400 homes on the market at any one time in Thurston County for several years. In a healthy real estate market we would have 1800+/- homes on the market at all times.

One reason for the low inventory is that sellers who may be considering a change to either a larger home or downsizing cannot find a home to move to so their home is not going on the market.

New construction is not expected to fill the shortage any time soon because of the lack of developable land and Regulatory fees consume .25 cents of every dollar to build. Banks are not financing builders aggressively like they were pre-2008 crash and banks are requiring builders to have significant skin in the game.

In 2021 Nationwide this year appreciation is expected to be over 15%!

In 2022 Nationwide prices are expected to cool off drastically, however appreciation is still forecast be above average. The forecast is for 5% appreciation Nationwide in 2022.

Many parts of the country are hitting an "affordability ceiling", which will slow appreciation rates and there are signs that we are hitting the “affordability ceiling” in our area.

There are no foreclosure concerns at this time. Property owners are sitting on a lot of equity which is approximately 50%+ in Washington State.

If a homeowner is in trouble and needs to sell they will not go into foreclosure given the equity position.

The Pandemic Mortgage Loan Forbearance program has worked keeping troubled homeowners in their homes.

Landlords that would like to sell their rentals will need to give renters a 90 day notice to move, and considering the condition of the property they may need to make repairs, so this will also slow the amount of rentals that will be hitting the market for sale in the near future.


2022 will be another great year for sellers. Interest rates will remain low and are not expected to rise significantly until late 2022 or 2023 at the earliest. It will still be a sellers’ market only not as robust as this year. Housing appreciation is expected to be around 5% nationwide vs. 15% this year with the decline caused by markets hitting an affordability ceiling. There will still be a lack of inventory. It will take years for new construction to fill the shortage gap. These statistics were from a recent CMLS meeting